Section 4:- The Oil-Based Geopolitcs and the Energy Angle; Breaking the Syria-Iran-Russia Connection using Turkey
Six regime changes (Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Russia and Ukraine) were planned during the Obama-administration, which were not directly linked to the Arab Spring. The motivation stemmed from agreements signed between Saudi-Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and US to execute oil trading in a manner which could perhaps be summarized as: “US-In, Europe-Down, Russia-Out, Saudi Arabia-Up, Iran-Down”. Under a ridiculous deal this agreement was reached between Kerry and Bandar Sultan, with the Saudis almost obsessively insisting that the Shia brand of Islam be completely eliminated and that they should have the complete control of the entire Islamic world. The former position pitted the Saudis against the Shias and the second position pitted Saudi with Turkey which is the de-facto leader of Sunni world and they made two types of enemies in the process. Perhaps, this agreement between Kerry and Bandar Sultan is very similar to the Hussein-McMahon agreement that was used to destroy the Ottomans. Will future historians write again about the Bandar-Kerry agreement as the earlier and current ones did about the Hussein-McMahon?
So as part of the deal Saudi Arabia would help in executing all the regime changes, if in return the Arabs were made the lords, or more precisely what they thought to be the lords, since in a similar game Saudi Arabia was given control of Mecca and Medina which post-1970 has been changed into a gigantic business enterprise in the name of Islamic Hajj and then used by the Americans anyway. In the current context, Saudi Arabia was convinced or forced to drop the price of oil, going against all OPEC considerations. It was calculated that in 2 years of this lowered-price-regime Russia and Syria will both crash as had happened in the 1986 collapse of the Soviet economy. When the demand for oil had gone up by 20 % the price dropped by 50 % – against all the laws of economics!! The Saudis had agreed to bear the losses for two years, until Syria could be taken over and then they could re-hike the price again.
This however was the miscalculation. The Russians had learnt valuable lessons from the 1986 crash which occurred in the Gorbachev and Yelstin era, and Russian exports had since been diversified heavily. Not only that, they also accumulated several tons of Gold, and were able to pull off trading in either the Euro or in the Rouble. The question of keeping Russia (the largest ONG producer) down was discussed earlier, and neither group in this alliance wanted the oil to be under Shia (Iranian) control. Thus sanctions were imposed on Iran, and to get them lifted Russia (note that European Diplomatic help would be on the same side of this paradigm) had to pressurize Iran to abandon its nuclear program.
In the immediate context of the coup, two competing projects aimed to reduce the Russian role in Europe’s Energy dependency. One was a Iran–Iraq-Syria-Lebanon pipeline to Europe, projected as a purely Islamic – read “non-aligned”- pipeline. While an agreement towards this was signed in 2011 (which outraged the anti-Shia Saudi Arabs and sparking a local cry “Syria must Go”), Qatar approached Syria, and suggested they shelve this project, and implement instead a pipeline from its own North Field, transiting Saudi Arabia, Jordan via Syria all the way to Turkey, and onto the EU. Syria’s Assad however rejected this suggestion, choosing instead to support former, finalizing the agreement with Iran and Iraq in 2012. Thus, while the ISIS and ISIL were instigated by their Western masters to destroy the Syrian refineries that would service this pipeline, Qatar took a deep vested interest in removing Assad….
This was done by raising the Shia-Sunni divide, but only this time Qatar-style by creating, nurturing and sponsoring the Al-Nusra front as an affiliate of the Saudi Arabian Al-Qaeda. The Saudis were enamored with ISIS/ISIL/Daesh mode because they carry the brand of Wahabbi islam. The extreme cruelties perpetuated by ISIS/ISIL/Daesh in terms of beheading children, women and any Muslim who was not a Wahabbi surpassed even the expectations of both their masters – The Saudis and the Americans, the latter referring to these groups as “Moderate”! But they were equally taken-aback by the strange other-worldly explanations offered when the ISIS and ISIL was beaten back and melted away with the determined response of Shiite Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon axis, despite their demonstration of extreme inhuman cruelty during the course of the war.
This left the battle on the ground in the hands of the Al-Nusra front – which recently morphed into Jabhat-Fateh-Al-Sham, prophetically stating that they are severing all links with Al-Qaeda — a wish that was instantly granted by the Al-Qaeda leadership. Thus transformed the demoniac, barbarian Al-Nusra Front into the American definition of “Moderate”. The Al-Nusra Front surpassed in ability most of the groups created earlier and was actually the diamond tip of the spear used in the attack on Syria, with extensive core and advanced level training being provided by veterans in Pakistan. Indians should take critical note of the role of Pakistan as a staging post for the International game. If Pakistan were not separated from India, would the West have been able to play this game? If Pakistan was not fighting with Afghanistan and there were no internal rebellions raked up in Balochistan would the West have been able to play this game? Do we, the Indians, see now at least one of the long-term consequences of the Partition of India? Alas, we are taught that it is meaningless to “try to re-play history”.
In addition to the geopolitics of Syria, which has long been known to have a critical location as a transit corridor, in the pipelines originating and terminating in other countries, the discovery of extremely vast energy-resources in both on the mainland of the Syrian territory and in the Mediterranean Sea between Syria and Cyprus, caused matters to take a far more serious turn. British and American strategists began to view this as a way to pull Europe off the Russian dependence with for example a 2014 US army SSI report explicitly saying “US-led military intervention has a key role to play in managing conflicts and tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially the prospect of Syria destabilising into de factocivil war”. More complicating is the aspect that the zones which contain these vast natural resources do not recognize man-made boundaries, and are overlapping between Syria and several neighboring nations (Israel, Greece, Cyprus etc), the potential for future conflict is 100% realizable. Thus, the dismemberment of Syria has been one of the geo-strategic aims of the British-American combine, and is supported in this regard by Syria’s neighbors, including Israel.
We mention here that with the descent of Syria into the civil-war (read foreign sponsored mayhem), the creation of a very prosperous state based on transshipment economy and on its own vast natural reserves has been impossible to so far accomplish, the Islamic pipeline (from Iran) is not completed as scheduled.
The British-American interests have thus attempted to push Assad into accommodating the Western interests or face the threat of being re-placed with a combination of rebel forces backed by Qatar and the other Gulf states, the ISIS and Turkey, which will then push for the dismemberment of Syria.
Critical then in this Western Geo-strategy, was Turkey’s role in the destabilization of Syria. Once the Turks are controlled, the regime change in Syria can then be executed via ground forces provided by Turkey, and the oil can be piped to Europe at a price convenient to the Anglo-American interests. They forced Turkey to set up training bases for IS/Daesh, ISIL etc, — for implementing which the Americans needed good interaction with the Turkish army’s command. The American penetration of the Turkish Armed forces, using Fetullah Gulen’s organization, came into play. While working with Erdogan, they also established and maintained inside Turkey a parallel structure, so that if Erdogan were to subsequently refuse to toe the US line, as in-fact he did, they could fall back on this parallel mode. This game however angered the Turkish Nationalist Establishment, adding fuel to which was the American funding of the Kurds. In a sense, it would be fair to say, that the Americans before executing the coup over-estimated their own abilities inside Turkey and perhaps erroneously assumed that Turkish Nationalists had been heavily bought out (via for example Colonel Campbell’s Nigerian-Bank affair).
Nevertheless, as explained earlier, Western motives for their Turkey policy is intended to control both Russia in the North as well as to serve as a tool to control Arab politics in the South. The centuries old Russo-Turkish antagonism was exploited by America to pull Turkey into its fold, and Turkey then became a pivot in this game. By becoming a NATO member, Turkey (inadvertently??) got pulled into all these conflicts while the series of historical battles between Turkey and Orthodox Russia was now viewed through the Cold War paradigm.
As at the height of the Cold War the artificially constructed nation-state of Afghanistan would be the staging/learning and training ground the Mujaheddin to overthrow Russians from Afghanistan, so too would all similarities carry over to later training of the Chechens were trained after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This training whose ideological and informational backbone was provided by the West, was facilitated by Turkey, financed by Saudi Arabia (Wahabbi Islam), Qatar (Salafi Islam) etc. And so in this context Turkey became their friend.
To keep Turkey in their hold, they had agreed to Turkish possessions in Cyprus, ignore the Armenian genocide, and ignore the Kurdish question and respect the territorial integrity of Turkey. But as an unexpected side-effect, in the name of fighting the Cold War anyone who claimed to be an enemy of the Russians were trained to fight (with Russia from the American perspective, but having their own complex set of motives). Fortunately or unfortunately, the people who answered this call-to-arms by the West were the poor and secular Muslims from the erstwhile Soviet republics and if their numbers fell short and another endless number was provided from much poorer African (Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Nigeria) and far-East Asian republics (Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia) and from the crown jewel of the colonial empire: Indian Subcontinent Muslims (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar); this last being our domain of responsibility.
Thus, while from the viewpoint of the Cold-War the training that was provided by the Americans, facilitated by Turkey and financed by the Arabs, was viewed as the American encircle-Russia agenda, the Turks could well have seen the matter differently. What externally appeared as the breakup of the Soviet Union, a historical event which occurred at this juncture in time, gave the Turks the impression that they could settle their 900-year old score with the Russians.
Except in the case of Taliban and Afghan Mujahedin, most of the training for the other groups was facilitated by the Turkish Army. This had very serious consequences in the question of the stability and historical basis of Turkey. The last two decades worth of interaction of certain sections of the army officers who were assigned for training these groups in collaboration with the West, led to a drastic change in the most sacred institution setup by the Ataturk: the Turkish Army. Most of the coordination and supervision of these groups was assigned to the Turkish Second Army which operated around Incirlik and other nearby bases. Coincidentally or accidentally (read: by design !!) most of the plotters, planners and executors of the current Coup who were all booked under sedition cases following the failed coup, belonged to this particular batch of the Turkish army.
Ahmed Davutoglu (former PM of Turkey) was an American choice and was funded by the Saudis and the Salafi and pushed a very pro-Sunni Wahabbi stance and anti-Shia stance….which was not the hallmark of the Turkish stand. On the Syrian question, when Erdogan was making statements that it is good to have Assad as part of a transitional government, Davutoglu had made statements against Assad. He had turned a blind eye and also actively encouraged the arming of the Kurds. He also masked American-led training for the terrorists, with all moves that were dangerous to Turkey as being exclusively anti-Russia, and this permitted further penetration into the army. A good amount of the blame for the recent fall of Turkey into this quagmire could perhaps rest on him, which is why Erdogan relieved him of Prime Ministership. This is another reason why Turkey is purging so many people who have caused Turkey to deviate from the healthy policy. Most of the coup participants were trained as NATO’s re-deployment force. Austrian and German sources estimate that 60% of the police and 70 % of the civil administration and 20 % of the armed forces were penetrated by the pro-American Gulen followers. Those who penetrated the Civil Services and Judiciary further helped with the cover up of the true aim of this operation. Do we see any signs of a similar cover up in India as well?
As mentioned earlier, a critical step in the engineering of the coup was to pull Fetullah Gulen to America and use his organization to infiltrate the entire Turkish establishment – not just the army. More revealingly the Fetullah Gulen Network has spread its network into the Judiciary, Police, Academicians and Border Patrol Units. Right now the Turkish Intelligence is tracking and tracing and most of these coup plotters supporters and financier inside Turkey escaping under ISIS/ISIL/ DAESH/ PKK / Moderate Western backed terrorist groups operating on the Turkish border. Some of them have been nabbed by the Turkish intelligence before they crossed the border and some are nabbed inside the Terrorist controlled cities themselves.
As a historical note, we should mention the 1807 Janissary Coup (Sultan’s elite bodyguards) had assassinated Sultan Selim III who was modernizing the army heavily, and then again they would force the subsequent Sultan Mahmud under threat of death to call off the Modernization of the Army. Mahmud II would in the famous 1826 “Auspicious Incident” execute over 6000 of them (due to a coup which they either staged or were caused to stage) and abolish the order entirely. The Janissaries had a tight link with the Bektashi religious order and this relationship played a critical role in the decision of the Ottoman administration to decide to end the Janissaries. The outlawing of the Bektashi has resulted in its re-manifestation and the formation of the Nakshbandi from where descends Said Nursi, under whom Fetullah Gulen manifests. The historical continuity should now be obvious.
Indians should note that this is precisely the danger of de-criminalizing the likes of Abhinav Bharat and propping up similar individuals and organizations, as well as of the multitude of decadent spiritual charlatans Sri, Sri-squared, Sri-cubed, varieties of Anandas (Nityanandas and Vivekanandas of all hues), Doctorjis, Gurujis, Panditjis, Matajis etc. India should take a good lesson from the Bektashi question mentioned above. It also has a critical bearing on the elimination of Hemant Karkare. We shall also examine these issues in more detail below.
Fetullah Gulen has been courted by the American Administration since 1971, as part of Operation Gladio-B, which mediates the NATO’s collaboration with radical Islam. (For more on Operation Gladio-B, see the article in this journal on Kashmir.) The Americans wanted to install in Turkey a rule similar to what was achieved in Egypt (Sadat who patched up with Israel and who was completely pro-American). But as elaborated earlier, the Turkish had their own agenda, and again, too weak a Turkey would not be able to fulfill the American aim of controlling the Arabs. The Turks were no fools however, and although as part of the role played by Turkey in Operation Gladio – B, they had to take in the radical Islamic elements under the Encircle-Russia objective, they were able to not only get what they wanted in a return bargain, but were also able to ensure that these terrorist elements would always remain under their control. The Americans soon realized that handling the Turkish Army or the Turkish Politicians is not a cakewalk, so the penetration via the Gulen movement into the Turkish Civil Society, in addition to the Army was pushed forward with far greater vigor. Also noteworthy is that with the fall of the Islamic Brotherhood and the Morsi government in Egypt, most of the cadre relocated to Turkey and further helped penetrate into Turkish civil society and Army. No matter what name these groups carry and what flavour is attributed to them, they started meddling towards the transformation of Turkish society into a rock solid image of the Wahabi brand of Islam…convenient to both British-America and Saudi Arabia.
The Turkish president realized that, contrary to any indications to the contrary, the Americans are bent on creating a Kurdish state. Indeed, he has seen them being armed from Mosul to Syria in the name of fighting the ISIS, which the Americans themselves had created. But he correctly recognized that these will be used to fight against Turkey as well, certainly when not being used in the anti-Russia campaign. This is somewhat similar to the situation we have in Kashmir where Americans trained Taliban, Mujahedin, LeT, etc with the objective of fighting the Russians, but these got pushed over to India.
But when the Americans finally concluded that Erdogan had his own agenda and was not going to play their game, they decided to try to take him out and put someone else and thus complete the fourth regime change agenda, and this now became a high priority for the Obama administration.
They staged a massive incident by shooting down the Russian plane. This alarmed the Russians who then got their ELINT to monitor Turkey in a 24/7 mode. Once the Russian ELINT started monitoring the Turkish communications, they picked up the existence of the danger of a coup, involving NATO-trained rapid re-deployment forces who were using a WhatsApp common group to plan a coup. The Russians at this point did not speak a word except to shut down Russian tourist traffic to and from Turkey. With the magnitude of the coup becoming clear, they realized that Turkey will become another Libya or Iraq and face a very grave danger of being further partitioned, in the manner of the failed Sevres Treaty, and that this would be followed by a partition of Syria as well. The Russians also realized that if a hard-line Sunni party came to power in Turkey, these hard-line Jihadists would enter Russia, complicating further the current problems is Ukraine. The danger of allowing the coup to go through was far too high.
Shortly before the actual coup was to take place, the Russians had presented the evidence to Erdogan, to prove the American backing. Interestingly, the moment the coup started, the NBC reported that Erdogan has fled into Germany—thereby hoping to destroy the morale of his followers and lure them into meekly surrendering to the coup plotters. While NBC claimed that they got this information from an unnamed military source, the Turkish sources realized that it is General Campbell who pushed this. This clearly showed that NBC was acting at the behest of a high level international group that planned the coup.
Not only did the Russians warn Erdogan, but their Spetsnaz forces were actually following him. The Presidential jet was escorted by two or three fighter jets loyal to him. On their way back from the Marmaris resort, F-16s coming in from Incirlik locked into not only onto Erdogan’s plane, but also onto his loyal escorting F-16’s . At this highly critical juncture, the Russian president, Putin himself stepped in and issued a straight warning to the Americans that he would within the next 120 seconds activate the S-500 missiles and shoot every NATO plane in the sky within a 500 km range. The threatening F-16 planes (not inexplicably as commonly thought now??) backed off and did not return to base in Incirlik, but flew onto Greece where they sought asylum. On a side-note, the Turkish Government is threatening legal recourse against NBC for propagating false information, asking them as to how they found that Erdogan is fleeing Turkey and heading out to Germany.
When the coup was in progress, the President called upon the Turkish people to come out to the streets to make sure the coup fails. Strangely, the only ones to answer this call, at least in the initial phase, were the Muslim extremist elements inside Turkey. These would have sided with the coup-plotters—but when they realized it is going to fail, they pretended to switch sides to move the culpability away from the US involvement, because both the coup-plotters and the extreme radical elements were funded by Saudi-Qatar-CIA-Gulen combine.
This is the existential danger that Turkey faced and as the last and only resort made a 180-degree-U-turn away from West, NATO and US, and away from the marauding Saudi brand of Islamic groups ( as practiced by the compliant monarchies) and gravitated towards Russia and Iranian viewpoint.
That is why when Erdogan successfully returned he decided to purge Turkey of this infiltration completely in a legal manner, after a fair trial. If he does this, 21 years of penetration effort will be lost to the West, which is now shouting itself hoarse —- losing Turkey for them means losing Syria…..and a lot more!
Forgetting about any international geo-political lessons, the minimum the Turks learnt was that the West wanted to further fragment the Ottoman Empire; and by harboring these terrorists at the behest of the Westerners to fulfill their objectives has corrupted Turkey’s secular military institution itself. Academicians, lawyers, administrators etc became one with the terrorists and propelled Turkey in the direction of the failed state of Pakistan. Exactly then our Western neighbor aka Pakistan is a sense exact mirror image of Turkey – minus the good assistance of Kemal Pasha at its founding, minus the knowledge and wisdom acquired from centuries of existence as an Empire, minus the strong secular army, minus the leadership of Erdogan.
Part Five https://utsaav.wordpress.com/2017/05/28/from-anatolia-to-india-the-turkish-coup-beginning-of-the-end-of-great-game-part-five/